Boris Johnson will on Monday make a brand new try to win parliament’s backing for his Brexit deal, amid rising confidence that he can overcome a sequence of setbacks on the weekend and now has the backing of the 320 MPs wanted for victory.
Mr Johnson insists he can nonetheless ship Brexit on October 31, despite shedding a key vote on Saturday and being pressured to write to the EU searching for a three-month delay to the Article 50 exit course of.
“We appear to have the numbers to get it through,” Dominic Raab, overseas secretary, instructed the BBC. Calculations by the Financial Times suggests Mr Johnson is on course to win by a majority of 5, however the result’s on a knife-edge.
The UK prime minister has a two-pronged technique for making progress this week: both successful a brand new “meaningful vote” on Monday or by securing a majority when laws implementing the deal is put to a vote on Tuesday.
The concept of a brand new “meaningful vote” on the deal — changing the vote aborted by Mr Johnson on Saturday after MPs successfully voted to delay giving their approval — could also be scuppered on Monday if the Commons Speaker John Bercow refuses to permit it.
The danger of leaving with out a deal has truly elevated as a result of we can’t assure that the European Council will grant an extension
Government insiders admit that a extra doubtless route ahead is the second studying of the withdrawal settlement on Tuesday, the place MPs might be requested to vote on whether or not they agree with the precept of Mr Johnson’s new deal.
Keir Starmer, shadow Brexit secretary, stated Labour may again the brand new deal supplied it was topic to a second referendum. Mr Johnson is fiercely opposed to a brand new ballot and the House of Commons has to this point failed to again one on any event.
Labour can also be backing amendments to soften the financial influence of Mr Johnson’s “hard Brexit” technique, searching for to rewrite the legislation to require the prime minister to maintain the UK within the EU’s customs union and shut to the only market.
If Mr Johnson wins Tuesday’s vote he’ll carry ahead a “programme motion” to speed up the Brexit laws by the Commons and Lords in time for the October 31 deadline.
“The public will expect us to move at pace to get the withdrawal agreement passed so we can leave on October 31,” a authorities supply stated. Late-night sittings within the Commons and weekend sittings within the Lords are anticipated.
EU ambassadors met in Brussels on Sunday to focus on the most recent Brexit chaos at Westminster and agreed to proceed preparations for the ratification of an exit deal in time for Britain’s doable departure on November 1.
The EU is probably going to supply a brief extension ]to Mr Johnson if he wants extra time to ratify his deal or an extended extension if the federal government can’t win MPs’ backing for the deal and a normal election follows.
“An election is coming soon in any scenario,” stated one ally of the prime minister. The solely query in Number 10 is whether or not there’s time to maintain a ballot earlier than Christmas or whether or not Mr Johnson may very well be pressured to wait till subsequent spring.
Michael Gove, cupboard workplace minister, stated on Sunday he was “triggering Operation Yellowhammer” — the federal government’s no-deal contingency plans — in case the EU refused to grant Mr Johnson’s request for an extension.
“The risk of leaving without a deal has actually increased because we cannot guarantee that the European Council will grant an extension,” Mr Gove instructed Sky’s Sophy Ridge.
According to an evaluation by the Financial Times based mostly on previous voting data and public statements, there may very well be a majority of 5 for the Brexit deal. Some 320 MPs presently seem set to again Mr Johnson’s deal, with 315 opposed.
Mr Johnson’s Commons defeat on the weekend meant MPs have delayed approval of his deal till after the withdrawal settlement invoice had been agreed by parliament.
Hence Mr Johnson couldn’t meet the deadline of October 19, set down beneath the so-called Benn act, to win Commons assist for his deal. He has been pressured by the act to write a letter to the EU searching for a delay to Brexit till January 31 2020.
Mr Johnson’s reluctance to search the extension was manifested by his choice to ship three letters to Brussels late on Saturday night time, together with an unsigned letter to Donald Tusk, European Council president.
Mr Tusk stated he was now consulting EU member states on the phrases of any extension. David Allen Green, a legislation and coverage columnist for the Financial Times, stated Mr Johnson’s failure to signal the letter was “an utter red herring”.
Some MPs who backed the Letwin modification delaying approval — together with Oliver Letwin himself — say they may again Mr Johnson’s deal now that they’re reassured that there was no danger that Britain may by chance depart the EU with out a deal.