What would have happened during the first round of the NCAA tournament


Although there are not any actual video games to play, FiveThirtyEight remains to be taking pictures just a little March insanity. We have created an NCAA tournament medium, utilizing the ESPN parenthesis, and we’ll simulate the outcomes of every recreation utilizing a easy "roll of 100-sided dice" towards our forecast possibilities. Come again on Fridays and Mondays till April 6 to learn the way every round went. Here's how the first round might have gone (together with the first 4 on the males's aspect).

Men's assist

Top 4: Aside from quantity 16, Robert Morris had an in depth victory over Boston University, the relaxation of the video games went in keeping with plan, with N.C. State, Richmond and Prairie View advancing to the knockout phases.


The favorites: The high 5 seeds superior, though Kentucky, Duke and Auburn every had just a little extra bother with their opponents in the first round than we anticipated.

Cons: There had been solely two on this nook of the holder. Iowa fell to East Tennessee State by some extent, a basic upheaval of 11 out of 6. And No. 7 Providence was knocked down by No. 10 in Arizona State in an extremely small affair.

Clashes in the subsequent round: Our 2-3 Duke and Kentucky ought to profit from the upheavals on the highway to Sweet Sixteen, whereas Auburn-Wisconsin appears like a very good duel between two balanced groups.


The favorites: The high 5 seeds remained intact in the West, with solely Michigan # 5 having some bother overtaking Yale # 12.

The annoyances: the large bomb of the first round of this area was the n ° 11 Indiana forward of the n ° 6 Brigham Young. BYU regarded like a staff on the rise, and we had given the Cougars a 15% likelihood of reaching the Elite Eight, however the Hoosiers squeaked shock. Elsewhere, the ninth seeded Oklahoma additionally surpassed LSU # 8.

Next Round Matches: Indiana-Seton Hall is reminiscent of this 1989 tournament recreation, however the actual recreation to look at in the subsequent round is # 2 in San Diego vs. # 7 in San Diego. Arizona – our mannequin calls this match a 50-50 coin throw.


The favorites: Dayton survived his debut as a No. 1 seed, as did Florida States No. 2-4, Villanova and Maryland.

The upheavals: 4 inferior seeds received their first round video games in the East: Florida n ° 9 (on Colorado, due to this fact, our mannequin didn’t even think about a shock), the # 39 NC State (on Penn State), 12 Richmond (on Butler) and # 10 in Utah State (on West Virginia). The latter was an actual upheaval; we gave the Aggies solely 35% likelihood of profitable, and we gave WVU 7% likelihood of making the Final Four – tied for the greatest odds we have given to any staff ranked sixth or worse. So a lot for that!

Next Round Clashes: Numerous upheavals have left us with much less intriguing clashes in the round of 16, however Florida is an efficient offensive staff that would present second round fireworks towards Dayton's high flight.


The favorites: The high six seeds in the South all superior, numbers 1 to three from Baylor, Creighton and Michigan State all advancing by big margins.

The annoyances: No. 9 Rutgers took care of the eighth seeded Saint Mary’s, though our mannequin nonetheless gave the Scarlet Knights a 60% likelihood of profitable. The most important upheaval was the USC's 1 level victory over No. 7 Illinois, a match that the Fighting Illini had a 69% likelihood of profitable.

Clashes in the subsequent round: State of Michigan # Three vs. Virginia # 6 Virginia is a catchy opponent of two Final Four groups a 12 months in the past. But Louisville's No. Four towards Ohio State's No. 5 is even nearer – our mannequin thinks it's precisely a 50-50 throw.

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The favorites: The high six seeds all moved simply, together with the # 1 seed in South Carolina and # 2 in N.C.

The Upsets: The solely outsider to win on this nook of the vary was 10th seeded Marquette, who beat seventh seeded Arkansas by 1 level in a low rating slugfest.

Upcoming Games: Oregon State # Four vs. Missouri State # 5 is a replay of the WNIT pre-season championship, which noticed the Bears take an 8-point lead in the third quarter earlier than the Beavers return to win by 11. Oregon The state is once more the favourite – at 87% – however might the state of Missouri upset?


The favorites: No. 1 (and reigning champion) Baylor and No. 2 Stanford simply despatched their enemies.

The Upheavals: We have our first actual upheaval right here, with the No. 11 James Madison overturning the No. 6 of Ohio State by 1 level. His Hoop Stats gave JMU a easy RPI rating of 31, in comparison with OSU quantity 19, however JMU really had the highest total rating on the website.

Clashes in the subsequent round: Iowa State and Florida are the most equalized recreation No. Four towards No. 5 in our class at 60-40, whereas the State of Mississippi # Three ought to profit from the upheaval of the State of Ohio by James Madison.


The favorites: The favorites had a simple time once more, with the high six seeded all gaining not less than 20 factors.

The upheavals: There was just a little extra drama on this area than in Greenville … however not a lot. The No. 9 seed, Iowa State, beat Virginia Tech's No. Eight class, however the Cyclones had been the truth is the favourite favorites (51-49%). # 10 Purdue upset TCU # 7 – boilermakers had a 39% likelihood of the upset taking place.

Clashes in the subsequent round: DePaul, # 4, will have a tricky job with Chennedy Carter and Texas A&M # 5, who have a 34% likelihood of upsetting. Meanwhile, Maryland coach Brenda Frese will face Iowa State, the place she was an assistant from 1995 to 1999. The Terrapins, nevertheless, usually are not more likely to combat the Cyclones – we give them 95% of possibilities to maneuver on.


The favorites: It was one other round of the cake for the first six seeded, with solely Princeton # 6 going through any downside, profitable by 1 level over Tennessee n ° 11.

Upheavals: Texas # 10 beat Arizona State # 7, nevertheless it wasn't actually an upheaval – Texas was simply an outsider from 51-49. The greatest upheaval was really central Michigan, No. 9, towards the No. 8 Rutgers: the Rutgers had a 66% likelihood of advancing in our mannequin.

Clashes in the subsequent round: As a reward for his or her upheavals, central Michigan will get Oregon, whereas Texas will get UConn. Bella Alarie and the Princeton Tigers, sixth seeded, with the most stingy protection in the nation, might give No. 3 Northwest a run for his or her cash.

Discover our simulated insanity forecast for March.



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