Will the Brexit deal pass the Commons?


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Boris Johnson has agreed a Brexit deal with the EU, resulting in a surge in sterling and far pleasure at Westminster. The query now’s whether or not the pact can be authorised in the key Commons vote on Saturday.

The consensus at Westminster at this second is that Mr Johnson doesn’t have the numbers. The Democratic Unionist occasion has made clear it received’t again the deal “as it stands”. Without its help, it’s arduous to see the way it will get by the Commons.

James Forsyth in The Spectator has a very good evaluation of the place the drawback lies. He says Mark Spencer, the Conservative chief whip, calculated final evening that if the DUP backs Mr Johnson, the authorities will win on Saturday with a majority of only one.

That majority can be made up of all Tory MPs, 15 unbiased Conservatives, the DUP plus 9 Labour rebels in Leave constituencies who can be defying their very own occasion whip.

But with out the DUP, Mr Johnson wants 19 Labour MPs to again him. My FT colleague Jim Pickard says that getting that many Labour MPs to again a Johnson deal can be very arduous certainly.

How may the dynamics change in the subsequent 48 hours? One chance, which Downing Street is actively pursuing, is that the European Council ought to declare tonight that if the deal doesn’t undergo it received’t give the UK the three-month extension demanded by the Benn Act.

If the EU did that, it will imply that failure to pass the vote on Saturday would plunge the UK right into a no-deal Brexit on October 31.

That would definitely focus minds at Westminster. It may push the DUP over the line, in addition to attracting extra Labour MPs in direction of the Johnson deal. But this could be a very high-risk technique for the EU to undertake. I discover it arduous to imagine it would go down that highway.

It could be that Mr Johnson has resigned himself to dropping on Saturday. He might take the view that, in that scenario, he can go right into a normal election brandishing the deal he has signed and saying he would have taken the UK out of the EU on October 31 if solely parliament had allowed him. He would then name on voters to present him the parliamentary help he must get the pact by.

The different chance, after all, is that the DUP caves at the final minute. Right now, it’s arduous to see what can presumably change the DUP’s minds, provided that the Brexit deal is now signed and sealed.

But after three-and-a-half years, parliament, the EU and far of the British public are completely fatigued by the Brexit course of and wish Britain to maneuver on. There is one thing about the environment in British politics that makes one suppose that — one way or the other — Mr Johnson will get what he needs on Saturday. 

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Further studying

The Boris Johnson Brexit deal dissected “Britain will be set on course, however, for a hard Brexit with an awful lot of its future still up for negotiation. The clock will start ticking again to a new deadline on securing a trade deal. Mr Johnson will claim to have met his pledge to ‘get Brexit done’. In fact, Brexit will only just be getting started.” (Robert Shrimsley, FT)

Here’s why Boris Johnson’s plans have each likelihood of falling aside (Tom Kibasi, The Guardian)

Johnson the negotiator has been extra strong than May — however much less intransigent (Andrew Gimson, ConservativeDwelling)

Hard numbers

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