sara.ziegler (Sara Ziegler, sports activities editor): Week 10 is just about in the books, with an excellent match-up to come back once more tonight. It was a week of shock wins, together with a victory for the Vikings that I didn’t assume 100% would occur. In East Rutherford, somebody needed to win – and the Jets did it!
Neil (Neil Paine, Senior Sports Editor): I like the approach the Jets wore the black uniform a week after that black cat ran on the pitch.
Joshua.hermsmeyer (Josh Hermsmeyer, NFL analyst): Transparent complaints to the gods of soccer.
The Giants are in final place in yards per sport and in EPA per sport in opposition to zone protection this season. The Jets gave them a powerful dose and the 10th week they ended up at the backside of the league in yards per sport.
Neil: Every yr, I say to myself, "Hmm, I'd better write this story about how long the Jets and Giants have been so bad at the same time."
And it's by no means too late.
Salfino (Michael Salfino, contributor to FiveThirtyEight): I'm attempting to mentally block the total Jets season. But 13 Saquon Barkley carries for 1 yard is one of the strangest statistics ever.
neil: One meter!
joshua.hermsmeyer: My new superior metrics are in inches by maintain.
neil: It's 2.Eight inches per carry.
LAUGH OUT LOUD
Salfino: Is this actually the math? Hilarious.
The Jets are wonderful in unimportant areas, like the operating protection.
sara.ziegler: I used to be prepared for this sport to be unassailable, however the drawback about two bad groups preventing it, is that it may be fairly entertaining.
Salfino: Daniel Jones' defeat was a first-rate victory, however it’s important to assume that his inexperience is inflicting issues with Barkley's operating, as a result of it's all about being in fine condition and being bad. But I'm speculating.
Neil: Just to shut the loop on Saquon: In 1974, Benny Malone misplaced Three speeding yards in 14 races. This is the smallest quantity of gamers with not less than 13 staves in a sport.
But Barkley's efficiency can also be on the rise.
joshua.hermsmeyer: If I additionally speculated, I might say that there’s a actual lack of creativity in operating. Saquon is clearly good, and if he performed in a system that was not as "2019 vanilla", I believe they might have extra success in the sport, particularly in opposition to the defenses lacking all their linebackers like the Jets.
Neil: Yes. I’ve to cease enjoying these 1974 "Benny Malone" items.
Salfino: It's humorous as a result of Malone has in all probability had the largest downhill in playoff historical past.
neil: Wow. Some nuances from Marshawn Lynch, who had the different GOAT playoff race there.
sara.ziegler: That's an attention-grabbing level, Josh, and I believe that appears like one thing that folks don’t perceive about the halves.
It's not that the present sport doesn’t matter. That accomplished!
joshua.hermsmeyer: The present sport is essential, Sara.
sara.ziegler: I believe folks miss it in terms of particular person backs being much less vital to the sport generally.
Neil: Although that is generally tough to reconcile with the incontrovertible fact that the common run creates added damaging factors added.
Salfino: But is the present sport vital? Watch San Francisco, together with his protection yielding practically 5 meters per race. I imply, every part counts and every part to the utmost account, but when I constructed a crew, work 1 passes and work 2 stops the cross. I don’t care about Job 3.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Yes, factors might be grouped collectively. The different misunderstanding I see about the argument for replaceable regional workplaces is that it isn’t a damaging evaluation of expertise. It's actually about general excellence and expertise evaluation at the place. Finding a superb again is an issue solved at the NFL stage.
Salfino: Still, we’ve to help Kalen Ballage.
Neil: And even Ballage averaged 5.Three yards per race final season, his rookie yr. The halves, smh.
sara.ziegler: Speaking of Ballage, what about those that cost dolphins!
Salfino: Ron Johnson, of the 1974 Giants, is the solely participant in the NFL after merging with fewer yards per run than Ballage in 9 video games, with a minimal of 50 passes. See, 1974 is a theme in the present day. I like that!
Have dolphins forgotten that dropping is a key half of tanking?
Neil: The Dolphins actually missed their shot at alternative # 1. Now they’ve to leap three extra groups! According to the ESPN mannequin, Miami has solely a 17% probability of being elected first subsequent yr.
Salfino: Brian Hoyer thought he was doing the tank.
sara.ziegler: An simple mistake to commit once you've performed for as many groups as Hoyer.
Salfino: Maybe Jacoby Brissett isn’t bad.
joshua.hermsmeyer: It's barely above common!
I believe the drawback with the Colts as the season approached was that they had been risking 8-Eight jail of mediocrity. It appeared they may be capable of escape with Brissett, however Hoyer would possibly deliver them down once more.
Neil: The previous couple of weeks have been very powerful for qualifying probabilities for Indy.
The Colts had been 67% to win and 47% to win the division two weeks in the past. Now these numbers are 32% and 20% respectively.
Salfino: What are the Steelers' probabilities in the playoffs? What an unbelievable turnaround. I’ve by no means seen it come with out Ben Roethlisberger. I actually have no idea how they do it.
Neil: Yeah, in a method or one other, they’re extra more likely to succeed than in no way! We have the Steelers at 56%.
sara.ziegler: And then there may be Pittsburgh's opponent on Sunday, the Rams. Eek.
Salfino: Jared Goff has a decrease QBR than Sam Darnold, and Jets followers test the return coverage on Darnold. But Goff's offensive line is fucked up and has been bad all yr. Cooper Kupp didn’t catch Sunday? It's virtually as surprising as Barkley's day. What is the drawback right here? Are the Rams simply lifeless now?
Neil: But I believed Sean McVay was a generational expertise! Should not he be capable of get out of this?
Salfino: I believe so, he was worthy of his hype, sure.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I believe when schematic consultants break the Rams season, the conclusion will probably be that Bill Belichick (and Matt Patricia's stratagem) have damaged McVay.
And despite the fact that evaluation sorts like me generally say that the league is ineffective, it’s clearly a blatant instance.
Salfino: Is there a relationship between Todd Gurley and RBs-not-not-fongible? They cannot discover anybody to interchange what he misplaced.
neil: It seems that the success of CJ Anderson in the playoffs didn’t show that Gurley was only a cog in the machine in any case?
joshua.hermsmeyer: Do not they work properly?
neil: Ehhhhh … they're 23rd in EPA per sport, 22nd in yards per race.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Yes, third third. But in entrance of the patriots.
Salfino: More zero explosion in the sport in progress.
Neil: They are tied for 13th general.
Salfino: But Goff's QBR is a junk.
Neil: His TD / INT ratio is zero.
sara.ziegler: He seems misplaced there.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Oh, I discovered the statistics displaying the Rams isn’t horrible to run: eighth of the success price, which pertains to the components that generate a optimistic EPA.
That stated, with out the explosive items, as Mike talked about, it's not likely a scary half of their crime.
Salfino: Biggest disappointment: Rams or Cowboys?
sara.ziegler: Well, there are solely 25% of the Rams left to play in the playoffs, and the Cowboys nonetheless have a 50% probability.
Salfino: Dak Prescott appeared so unstoppable that I used to be shocked by the loss of the Cowboys. Jerry Jones has endured loads, but it surely may very well be a brand new customary. Dallas has solely 5-Four with all that expertise on either side of the ball: they lead the NFL in yards per sport and in assault generally, they’re seventh in general protection and they’re third in internet yards per cross earned minus these permits (the two groups above them to that extent mixed for one loss). Has a coach already gained much less with greater than Jason Garrett this yr?
Do you wish to hearth Garrett?
joshua.hermsmeyer: No, I don’t assume you are able to do it. But I would definitely inform him to not intervene with offensive shouts.
Salfino: Cowboys are over-81 in factors. Yet, 5-4. Do we give coach credit score for all statistics or will we crush him for the file?
sara.ziegler: I believe that so long as they play in the playoffs, it won’t matter.
Salfino: Coming to Josh's level, Dallas ought to quit the race as a result of Ezekiel Elliott appears to have misplaced a bit, and Dak and the sport that has handed him have escaped. It must be Dak's crew now.
Neil: For the file, Dak continues to have an unbelievable season. He ranks third in our Elo QB metric, behind Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson.
(Again, Mahomes and Dak performed very properly and misplaced this week, go determine.)
In addition, the Cowboys misplaced to a GOOD TEAM.
aka Sara's VIKINGS.
Salfino: Sara won’t admit it, but it surely's okay.
joshua.hermsmeyer: With a QB in the dialogue on the MVP!
sara.ziegler: That's good.
Sara has a scale adjusted for the Vikings.
"Bad" = common
"OK" = fairly good!
"FINE" = superior
joshua.hermsmeyer: This scale is just Minnesota.
Salfino: I believe the Vikings have issues in the defensive subject, however they’re capturing a method or the different. Not solely yesterday, however extra typically too.
sara.ziegler: This sport has helped me loads to get my hopes far too excessive earlier than they're lastly worn out. So it's enjoyable.
Neil: What worries me is that they’re nonetheless not favored to win the division. We give them solely a 34% probability.
So which means an impromptu date and … in all probability a form of finish of season accident.
sara.ziegler: LOL, sighs.
Neil: The drawback is that these damned Packers proceed to win.
sara.ziegler: Green Bay impressed me Sunday with one of these traditional wins in the snow at Lambeau.
Neil: I like snow in Lambeau. Is there something aside from "football"?
joshua.hermsmeyer: Nope. There is one thing very soccer in the background about it. It's superior.
Salfino: The Vikings are higher than the Packers, but it surely doesn’t matter to win the division.
sara.ziegler: The Vikes have one other probability in opposition to the Packers – and one other probability to lose inexplicably in opposition to the Bears.
Neil: Yes, I believe we stated at the time that the earlier loss of the Bears might hang-out them.
sara.ziegler: ^^^ evergreen
Salfino: The Packers cannot be moved to win a house win in opposition to Kyle Allen.
Neil: At least you will get excited for Christian McCaffrey to be arrested in a decisive state of affairs!
Salfino: Well, you wish to put the ball in his arms with the on-line sport.
Neil: The Panthers had been definitely decided to do it.
sara.ziegler: The match that made me the most disturbed Sunday was Saints-Falcons. The Atlanta protection regarded … good? How? 'Or' What?
Neil: It's basically the Falcons crew that has been MIA all yr. Or, like two years.
Salfino: Drew Brees was sacked six instances increased for Saints for the third time in his profession. They are 0-Three at these video games. He has been fired 5 or extra instances seven instances, and they’re 1-6 in these. We all know that luggage are bad, however not many individuals perceive how horrible they’re. They are like mini-turnovers.
Neil: It was additionally the largest shock of the entire season for Elo. This gave ATL solely a 12% probability of profitable. (And it was to know that Matt Ryan would play.)
Yesterday, two of the 5 largest annoyances of 2019 occurred: the Falcons in opposition to the Saints (12%) and the Dolphins in opposition to the Colts (20%).
joshua.hermsmeyer: Well, it's more durable and more durable to accuse Miami of tanking in the sport.
Neil: The humorous factor about the Falcons victory is that Ryan didn’t even play very properly. He had just one ranking of 78.5 smugglers.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Boo smuggler notice!
Neil: I imply, it's a shortcut.
His attempt-adjusted yards had been 5.06. Always under his requirements.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Yeah, that's not nice.
Salfino: Yes, the Atlanta offense was typically disappointing. They gained the protection sport. Alvin Kamara isn’t very like himself after being injured in the leg. Although Michael Thomas is tremendous environment friendly, he doesn’t produce loads of factors with large video games / touchdowns. The longest of his 13 catches was 18 yards.
Neil: The Falcons misplaced video games by which Ryan recorded 145, 121 and 103 smuggling scores (I do know, I do know) this yr.
They win the one the place he has a 79.
Salfino: The rating of the smugglers is mostly fairly correlated to the victory, FWIW.
joshua.hermsmeyer: Gase just lately stated the Jets had been sacrificing the stats in an try to win. Maybe Matty Ice has sacrificed his for the Falcons.
Neil: He definitely had one of the most profitable seasons "without statistics" till now. Maybe he took a Costanza technique?
Salfino: The 2019 Cowboys are half of the statistics groups of all time with out victory.
Neil: Nothing will ever transcend the 2010 Chargers, however we'll see how shut they will get.
sara.ziegler: Regarding Josh about the Dolphins and their lack of tanks, why did they begin Ryan Fitzpatrick to Josh Rosen? It's bad in any respect ranges: you don’t give Rosen the probability to develop, you don’t lose video games both to get the first alternative to interchange Rosen subsequent yr.
Salfino: But who’s even the first alternative? I believe that is the drawback of tanking in the NFL. I do know Josh says that all through the draft is a capital fund, however why is it so vital should you select first or fourth? Unless you wish to change the QB alternative, you clear up.
Neil: Yeah, is Tua Tagovailoa actually the kind at residence that you simply want?
Salfino: And Joe Burrow may be very previous for a QB prospect. He is older than Darnold, for instance.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I've already seen arguments that Dolphins might nonetheless be traded, which can clarify why they’re much less involved a couple of handful of wins this season. But I believe there’s a easier rationalization: it's bad to be half of a dropping crew. I used to be chatting with a man from the crew this weekend and instructed him, "I understood the argument, but do you know how terrible it is to lose a year?" dwell this hell in the hyper aggressive NFL can take its toll. These two victories may very well be helpful regardless of the loss of accessible capital.
Salfino: Plus, the coaches wish to win. You are tankez and your profession might be over. Fans will ask.
Neil: I might see that. Baseball and basketball supply extra complete losses to tankers, however the bodily and emotional price of enjoying soccer – destroying one's physique and dropping – is at a special stage than these different sports activities.
Salfino: The Bengals are in all probability involuntarily performing the excellent tank. They snuck up on us.
Putting Andy Dalton on the bench was a coup de maître. Bengals are bageling for Burrow?
Neil: Dalton at the moment has a better QB Elo than Mitch Trubisky. LAUGH OUT LOUD
sara.ziegler: Oooh, this sport of Bengals. At least, this gave us a rotating rotation Lamar Jackson for ages.
neil: I preferred this second in the post-match bail:
Salfino: Ironically, the individuals who stated that Jackson was a superb operating again had been proper. He additionally occurs to be a quarterback.
joshua.hermsmeyer: * WR
Salfino: Oh, that doesn’t make any sense.
Neil: The traces between QB and RB are blurring in Baltimore. They used RGIII at RB yesterday.
Salfino: That will upset the sport logs, Neil.
joshua.hermsmeyer: I imply that they stated that it was something aside from what it’s: a giant QB. Since we've talked about smuggling rankings, Lamar has been the first QB since 2007 to have two units of excellent runner standings in a season on his resume.
Neil: At one level, they’d three Heisman winners – Jackson, Griffin and Mark Ingram – in the subject directly.
This should be a file.
Salfino: I really like this stat.
joshua.hermsmeyer: My solely remark – and the solely remark wanted, actually.
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