Who is in and who is out of the wild NFL card hunt?

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sara.ziegler (Sara Ziegler, sports activities editor): The 11th week of the NFL season has given us many enjoyable moments, none of that are extra great than the audition of Mark Ingram as Lamar Jackson's drummer:

Mark Ingram drops the intro of the 12 months for Lamar Jackson

Every second is good.

(through @Ravens) pic.twitter.com/pG2O32meXN

– Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 17, 2019

While there are solely six weeks left in the season, the playoff photograph is turning into clearer. So let's speak about the joker race. We are going to start out in the NFC: in the Sunday evening soccer match, two groups wanted a win to strengthen their possibilities of taking part in the playoffs, however none appeared to need the W.

Neil (Neil Paine, Senior Sport Editor):

There had been no winners right here.

sara.ziegler: LOL

The bears are nearly completed now. Do the Rams nonetheless have an opportunity?

Salfino (Michael Salfino, contributor to FiveThirtyEight): During the recreation, I used to be questioning what number of video games it might take the Bears to attain a objective if all of us agreed that they’d not go away the discipline a lot that they’d not have completed it. I stated 33, but it surely's in all probability mild.

joshua.hermsmeyer (Josh Hermsmeyer, NFL analyst): I'm nonetheless somewhat shocked that Mitch Trubisky has the next QBR than Jared Goff. If this continues, I don’t see how the Rams are in competition for the playoffs.

sara.ziegler: He additionally had extra fantasy factors in our league than Goff. (Says the fool who owns them each.)

Salfino: It's solely since you exchanged Kirk Cousins, Sara.

neil: (And I didn’t even begin Cousins ​​this week.)

Even after this victory, the state of affairs appears tough for L. A. Here is a listing of the QBs that the Rams will face from now:

Lamar Jackson

Kyler Murray

Russell Wilson

Dak Prescott

Jimmy Garoppolo

Kyler Murray

All of these guys are on the proper monitor proper now.

Salfino: Looks like all the good QB in the league, Neil. The carnage at the put up this 12 months is loopy. I don’t keep in mind something like that – not simply guys who are harm however guys like Goff and Trubisky and even Carson Wentz who are taking massive steps backwards.

joshua.hermsmeyer: To be honest, Biscuit and Goff don’t step again is not likely shocking. There had been actual questions on each at the begin of the season. Wentz is now not a thriller.

Another thriller: Wentz had a whole tattoo?

sara.ziegler: Hahaha

neil: OMG, I assumed precisely the identical factor!

Salfino: Can you do it in per week?

Neil: Well, two weeks. They had a 10 week goodbye.

sara.ziegler:

Did anybody at first assume that Carson Goz had obtained a whole tattoo? lol pic.twitter.com/f6BFPeMOw0

– SB Nation (@SBNation) November 17, 2019

Salfino: The Eagles and Patriots had been so exhausting to look at just some years after their electrical Super Bowl. Neither workforce had an explosion. They are like weighted with out punch, they simply snap and attempt to rating factors with the judges. Unable to launch a haymaker except, for New England, it is a sleight of hand.

And you may say the identical factor about bears and rams.

joshua.hermsmeyer: Trubisky additionally had the next QBR than Tom Brady. And Trubisky could have been placed on the bench.

sara.ziegler: Oof

Salfino: Brady is trying each 42 years this 12 months: 6.Eight yards per try. Landing charge of 3.5%.

Neil: It's nonetheless very unusual to see the Pats be a primary protection workforce with a medium assault.

Salfino: You might see in the post-match bail how Brady had been defeated. He is aware of that the circus leaves the metropolis.

Neil: If we get a Pats-Ravens playoff recreation, the Pats will probably be the defensive juggernaut and the Ravens will probably be the offensive machine. Talk a few position reversal for a decade.

(But it seems to be too far, I do know.)

Salfino: It's like the Patriots 2003. Their protection appears to know that the offensive works higher than the offensive.

sara.ziegler: If it wins them a Super Bowl, like then, I doubt it bothered Brady.

But what about eagles? What is their prognosis for the playoffs?

neil: They are nonetheless there, a minimum of based on our possibilities. We give them an opportunity to play in the playoffs by 47 %.

But nearly every part is tied to victory in the division. They will nonetheless have an opportunity in Dallas and we nonetheless assume they’re favored with each remaining recreation.

The Eagles could have a a lot better likelihood of profitable

Elo Oppositions and Victory Odds for the Philadelphia Eagles' remaining 2019 Calendar

Opponent

Dated

Team
QB beginning
Elo ranking
Eagles' Win Prob.

November 24
towards.
SEA
Russell Wilson
1589
51.3%

1st December
at
MIA
Ryan Fitzpatrick
1338
71.6

December 9
towards.
NYG
Daniel Jones
1320
84.4

December 15th
at
WSH
Dwayne Haskins
1265
79.7

December 22
towards.
DAL
Dak Prescott
1587
54.5

December 29
at
NYG
Daniel Jones
1320
74.1

Salfino: I cannot consider how we simply cannot go away the Eagles – how they keep round. It's simply that the division is nonetheless in play. Both groups of wild-cards appear prepared, so it's bizarre that they're attempting to get in the essential gate.

In addition, Dallas should journey to New England in the 12th week.

Neil: Wild playing cards are normally more durable to win than the weakest division, is not it? Elo thinks that the East is the weakest, so far as the greatest groups of the convention are involved.

I believe NFC East normally appears like that. Last 12 months, it solely took 10 wins to win the title. (Or perhaps I'm additionally excited about the 12 months when Washington received it at 9am – 7am.)

Salfino: Actually, I believe the Cowboys are approach higher than the Eagles. I cannot establish any weaknesses with them, but they nearly misplaced to Jeff Driskel, who seemed like Doug Flutie. It was maybe the jersey quantity.

joshua.hermsmeyer: Eagles High School has been thought of an enormous downside for a lot of the 12 months, but it surely appears they’ve been in a position to provide you with a plan that works. They have largely lined the males's protection of the final three video games, limiting their opponents to solely 3.Four passing yards per try.

Salfino: It's stunning as a result of I assumed the Eagles' highschool was hopeless. Unfortunately, their assault was not way more common per go throughout this era.

neil: It's only a deeply common workforce. After adjusting for the energy of the program, the -0.Four particular groups have their worst discipline in phrases of factors anticipated from the common per recreation, and their greatest benefit is the penalties at +1.6. Everything else is in between.

Where every NFL workforce takes (or loses) its worth

Expected factors of curiosity (EPA) per recreation in comparison with league common by class for NFL groups in 2019

Offense
Defense
Other

Team
Pass
Rush
Pass
Rush
Sp Tms
Pen
Total

1
BORN
0.5
-1.2
14.0
0.9
0.1
0.8
15.3

2
BALL
5.8
5.8
3.7
-1.8
-0.1
-0.3
+13.0

3
SF
0.8
-1.5
10.4
0.5
-0.3
0.8
11.0

4
KC
8.6
-1.1
3.0
-2.3
-1.4
0.2
7.1

5
MIN
4.1
+2.0
+1.3
+1.8
-1.0
-1.8
6.9

6
GB
5.1
0.3
2.4
-2.6
-0.1
+1.4
6.2

seven
DAL
7.0
2.7
-0.8
-1.4
-1.7
-1.0
5.2

8
LAR
+1.7
-1.7
0.9
+1.9
1.6
+0.0
4.1

9
NO
+1.7
+1.0
2.7
+1.5
-1.1
-2.2
3.8

ten
SEA
4.6
-1.3
-0.1
-0.6
0.9
-1.0
2.8

11
HOU
4.0
1.1
-1.6
0.6
-1.6
0.2
2.6

12
PIT
-3.5
-4.2
2.8
4.3
+1.3
+1.4
2.4

13
IHP
0.5
-0.1
0.1
0.3
-0.4
1.6
+2.0

14
KEY
+0.0
0.3
2.4
-1.6
+1.4
-1.4
1.1

15
INDIANA
-2.4
2.4
1.1
-0.6
-2.4
+1.4
+0.0

16
TEN
-0.6
-1.6
0.3
3.2
-1.5
0.1
-0.2

17
CHI
-4.7
-2.7
4.4
2.2
0.4
0.2
-0.3

18
LAKE
0.9
-1.1
-2.7
-1.1
2.3
+1.7
-0.4

19
LAIR
-4.9
0.8
2.5
0.4
-0.6
0.8
-1.6

20
DET
3.4
-2.4
-1.8
-1.6
2.7
-2.3
-2.0

21
BUF
-2.9
+1.9
-0.3
-2.3
2.1
-0.2
-2.2

22
OAK
4.2
0.3
-4.0
-1.1
-0.3
-1.5
-2.5

23
CAR
-6.5
0.5
5.2
-3.4
0.8
0.7
-2.8

24
TB
-0.3
+1.2
-4.0
2.5
-1.8
-0.9
-3.0

25
ATL
3.9
0.4
-6.5
0.8
-2.2
0.9
-3.1

26
JAC
-2.0
-1.0
0.1
-2.0
0.5
-0.9
-5.2

27
ARI
0.1
2.6
-7.7
-0.1
-0.3
-0.4
-5.6

28
NYG
-6.1
0.9
-3.5
1.6
-0.4
-0.9
-8.1

29
NYJ
-6.5
-2.0
-3.5
3.2
+0.0
-1.0
-9.7

30
CIN
-6.3
0.1
-6.0
-1.5
2.2
+1.8
-9.8

31
WSH
-4.4
-1.4
-6.3
-0.3
0.0
0.2
-12.2

32
MIA
-6.5
-1.7
-7.9
-1.6
+1.2
+1.7
-15.0

Source: ESPN Stats & Information Group

sara.ziegler: So, other than Philadelphia's possibilities of profitable the East, the different wild hopes ought to be overturned by Seattle or Minnesota … and even when the Vikings actually appeared to wish to lose on Sunday, they eradicated him .

Neil: My God, have they ever needed to lose? Mike had tweeted about all this!

OMG, all of us baited @SaraMZiegler to kindly praise the Vikings towards his greatest judgment and they spit the gesture towards the Broncos at house. Sorry! @friscojosh @Neil_Paine

– Michael Salfino (@MichaelSalfino) November 17, 2019

sara.ziegler: This tweet was one thing else.

Salfino: Sara have to be completely current now after this demonstration of braveness and resilience, when she turned the first workforce in 100 video games to return again from a deficit of greater than 20 factors at halftime.

joshua.hermsmeyer: As dangerous as the first half of the Cousins, his second half was breathtaking.

Salfino: I actually felt dangerous about laughing at Sara's curse, however seeing him bloom so improbable and sudden in the first interval towards a Broncos workforce that, most weeks, cannot rating 20 factors in a complete match.

sara.ziegler: You ought to at all times really feel dangerous about making enjoyable of me !!!

Salfino: Cousins ​​rose from Captain Checkdown in first half to gunslinger. It's like he stated, "Fuck him."

sara.ziegler: But WHY cannot he at all times play like that?

And why does this workforce at all times appear to play at the degree of competitors it faces?

joshua.hermsmeyer: It's mysterious.

sara.ziegler: It kills me.

neil: He at all times performs like that now! Cousins ​​had seven consecutive begins above the common, based on Elo Quarter.

Salfino: My narrative sense is that he went into the recreation considering, "Do not lose that with stupid games." And he discovered himself in a place the place he needed to win.

joshua.hermsmeyer: I believe this rationalization is as legitimate as something, Mike.

Salfino: Cousins ​​can discover the greatest home windows when he lets them. And he normally does it.

sara.ziegler: Well, regardless of that first half, they appear to be in form now, with a 91% likelihood of taking part in the playoffs, relying on our mannequin.

Neil: Have you lastly accepted that they’re pretenders?

sara.ziegler: Of course, by the time I consider in them, they are going to fully collapse.

neil: Oh LOL.

sara.ziegler: No

joshua.hermsmeyer: wonderful

sara.ziegler: Somehow.

Salfino: Be cautious, Sara.

sara.ziegler: in the working for the playoffs? Sure.

Competitor to win every part? LOL, of course not.

neil: Seven %, Sara!

sara.ziegler: Stop that.

neil: There is an opportunity!

It's solely 2 share factors behind the 49ers.

joshua.hermsmeyer: 👀

neil: 🤯

Salfino: How fortunate is Minnesota to win the division, Neil, as I predict?

neil: 37%.

Packers are at all times favored there. This makes it much more spectacular that Green Bay and Minnesota have the identical Super Bowl odds.

sara.ziegler: The Vikings is not going to win the division. Remember that they are going to inexplicably lose to the Bears to finish the common season as they do.

The different NFC workforce that performed in the playoffs this weekend was the Carolina Panthers. And now … they don’t seem to be.

neil: Oooof

Salfino: That's for Cam Newton, which is not vital in Carolina.

Neil: Kyle Allen is dangerous and we've been saying that for some time.

joshua.hermsmeyer: I’ve hardly ever seen a QB flip right into a pumpkin as shortly as Kyle Allen.

I keep in mind at the starting of the season (the first 4 video games), there have been comparisons with Cam that appeared good to him.

Salfino: Maybe Cam, harm since final October.

Neil: Sadly, the Panthers have the seventh greatest impartial Elo-QB (Elo if the starter is changed by a method), and their protection is the fifth greatest to maintain the opposing QBs under expectations.

The help forged can solely do so much, although.

Salfino: At least we is not going to want to listen to a speech "A runner should be an MVP".

neil: Haha

joshua.hermsmeyer: I actually wish to see what Will Grier can do. He was a darling of evaluation getting into the undertaking.

Of course, it's not nice not with the ability to beat Kyle Allen, then.

sara.ziegler: LOL

joshua.hermsmeyer: My God, Allen had a 4.5 QBR.

Salfino: The Falcons protection has been a revelation since Dan Quinn gave up half of the recreation, elevating questions on the energy of teaching in common. Well, Sunday's match was towards Kyle Allen – however in addition they crushed Drew Brees.

Neil: The Falcons have skilled one of the most tough seasons. Their Elo ranking (1499) is now primarily that of a median workforce.

And Matt Ryan is the fifth greatest quarterback in the league.

sara.ziegler: The unveiling victory of the Vikings season on Atlanta is getting higher! 🤣

Let's transfer on to the AFC, the place there is so much much less readability. Five groups are on two wins for the wild locations.

Who will we prefer to play in the playoffs?

Salfino: Well, look the place Neil's EPA desk is with the Raiders.

neil: And but, Elo offers them a 41% likelihood to take part in the playoffs! This additionally offers Pittsburgh and Cleveland over 20% every.

Salfino: And Oakland is the workforce that excites everybody, even giving them an opportunity to win the division. (I cannot see this from a distance, however the recordings are what they’re.)

Neil: Jon Gruden even gave the Gruden Seal to followers of Da Raidah. ("They're crazy, it's the closest thing I've ever seen.")

Salfino: I've observed that Raiders are # 2 in phrases of success charge. That shocks me: Oakland is so good in such an essential statistic, however so dangerous in all places else that Elo hates them, mainly.

sara.ziegler: Fascinating, Oakland's Elo is solely 1484 – worse than Atlanta!

Neil: Derek Carr is secretly not dangerous.

Salfino: Now they go to East Rutherford for 13 hours. Local time match towards a Jets protection that is someway third in defensive recreation success, together with 10th towards the go.

This is clearly a win for the Raiders, however I don’t assume they get it.

sara.ziegler: You take the Jets ??

Neil: Elo is additionally in the recreation: 51% for the Jets.

Salfino: Yes. I simply don’t consider in the Raiders' protection.

sara.ziegler: But you consider in Sam Darnold, of course.

Salfino: I must see much more of Darnold, who continues to make irritating errors. Maybe he was sick longer than anticipated and that he was nonetheless feeling somewhat behind. But as a Jets fan, when he's spreading cash, I don’t wish to maintain my breath that he's going to make a mistake. The massive QBs in these locations don’t throw the ball into the discipline of play till a man is open. Otherwise, they won’t bind it as a result of it is authorized.

So Sunday will probably be an excellent check for him.

sara.ziegler: Who else in the AFC will we like?

neil: The Bills preserve trying … * eyes squinted * … rattling it ??

Josh Allen's massive recreation this week.

Joshua.hermsmeyer: Josh Allen beat on a foul protection. You prefer to see that.

Salfino: I cannot take the Titans severely. The Steelers have returned to earth and Mason Rudolph is imply and they’re punished by the incontrovertible fact that he is not suspended. Honestly, I can consider in payments. They are brave.

The Bills are the ravens of the poor.

joshua.hermsmeyer: I believe it's actually a extremely good enhancing, Mike.

Neil: It's … moderately logical.

MDR yeah.

sara.ziegler: Not the worst place to be!

Neil: And hey, because of Jacoby Brissett for stabilizing the Colts' season with a win. We now have Indy with a 54% likelihood to play in the playoffs.

I used to be mistaken once I assumed that they had been toasting with out Andrew Luck. Come on, Jacoby.

Salfino: We should say one thing about the absurd unsuccessful defensive interference problem in the Ravens-Texans match. It was a completely conclusive assault in the finish zone in fourth place that will in all probability have resulted in a 7-Zero lead for the Texans. Repetition, it is repeated, is a false promise of justice and ought to be over.

Neil: Yeah, that no-call was ridiculous.

sara.ziegler: But it doesn’t matter what name, the Texans had been a giant disappointment Sunday.

Neil: Oh, man. So a lot for the hype of Deshaun Watson vs. Lamar Jackson. Lamar was the proprietor of this recreation.

I did some analysis and it was one of the most one-sided duels with the elite of all time.

The most unilateral premium duels since 1950

The widest margins in phrases of recreation efficiency for quarterback clashes the place each QB novices had pre-match QB Elo scores of a minimum of 70 factors above common, 1950 -2019

Best QB
Worse QB

Dated
Last identify
Team
Elo *
Last identify
Team
Elo *
Margin

05/12/2004
D. McNabb
IHP
+335
B. Favre
GB
-214
+549

11/17/2019
L. Jackson
BALL
+245
D. Watson
HOU
-245
+490

01/14/1990
J. Montana
SF
+275
J. Everett
LAR
-202
+477

24/11/1986
D. Marino
MIA
+350
Ok. O'Brien
NYJ
-94
+444

1/20/1985
J. Montana
SF
+423
D. Marino
MIA
+7
+416

29/11/2007
T. Romo
DAL
+225
B. Favre
GB
-191
+416

12/18/2006
P. Manning
INDIANA
+302
C. Palmer
CIN
-108
+410

1/1/2012
D. Brees
NO
+354
C. Newton
CAR
-55
+410

30/11/2009
D. Brees
NO
+353
T. Brady
BORN
-50
+403

1/9/2005
D. Culpepper
MIN
+221
B. Favre
GB
-162
+383

1/4/2003
C. Pennington
NYJ
+144
P. Manning
INDIANA
-190
334

27/09/2009
P. Manning
INDIANA
+261
Ok. Warner
ARI
-57
+319

17/01/2010
B. Favre
MIN
+129
T. Romo
DAL
-189
+318

01/08/1984
J. Montana
SF
+297
J. Theismann
WSH
-2
+299

12/21/2014
Mr. Ryan
ATL
+180
D. Brees
NO
-116
+296

* Elo Game is the Elo efficiency of the QB (in comparison with a median newbie) in the recreation.

Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com

The solely brutal one was Donovan McNabb, proprietor of Brett Favre.

Salfino: It was one of the most embarrassing head teaching occasions I can keep in mind. Watson has taken all his dangerous habits, holding the ball too lengthy and being hit a ton of video games, in addition to repeated baggage. Bill O'Brien actually retains this workforce – and particularly this assault.

I'd moderately play O'Brien-trained Texans in the playoffs than the Bills.

joshua.hermsmeyer: I keep in mind the match between Joe Montana and Jim Everett in 1990. It was not likely just like that for any cause.

Neil: It was a playoff match – the NFC championship. Watson hoped that he would present himself extra typically if the Texans and Ravens got here head to head in the playoffs!

Salfino: I used to be at this match between Chad Pennington and Peyton Manning. Pennington would in all probability be on his technique to the Hall of Fame if he had not torn his shoulder. He was nice, however then it ended savagely.

joshua.hermsmeyer: I'm shocked by Pennington HOF's speech.

Salfino: Treat it!

Neil: I agree, Mike.

haha

joshua.hermsmeyer: Incredible.

Neil: In 2002, he scored above the defense-adjusted common of 40.6%!

Salfino: The solely man to have received a division of Brady (earlier than and after the destruction of his shoulder) – and he did it twice, with totally different groups.

sara.ziegler: Wow, I didn’t count on to speak about Chad Pennington as we speak, not to mention defend the Hall of Fame.

Salfino: It's a hypothetical, non-lesional, multiverse case, to be clear.

neil: LOL

Check out our newest NFL forecasts.


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